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Subjective Probability Interval Estimate (SPIES)

This wonderful tool was developed by researchers Uriel Haran, Don Moore, and Carey Morewedge to help people make better forecasts and predictions.

You can access the tool through Uriel Haran's websiteA brief, user-friendly overview of the method is available here and in Chapter 5 of Meltdown


You can read about research behind the SPIES in this article.

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