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Subjective Probability Interval Estimate (SPIES)

This wonderful tool was developed by researchers Uriel Haran, Don Moore, and Carey Morewedge to help people make better forecasts and predictions.

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You can access the tool through Uriel Haran's website. A brief, user-friendly overview of the method is available here and in Chapter 5 of Meltdown. 

 

You can read about research behind the SPIES in this article.

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